Former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya has emerged as the clear frontrunner in Minnesota’s Republican Senate primary, according to a new poll showing her holding a commanding advantage over the rest of the GOP field in the race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith.

A Quantus Insights survey conducted May 6-8 among 663 likely Republican primary voters found Tafoya receiving 51.8 percent support on the initial ballot, putting her far ahead of every other declared Republican candidate in the race.

Another 27.3 percent of voters said they remain undecided, while 6.3 percent said they would prefer another Republican candidate not currently listed in the survey.

Former NBA player Royce White placed a distant second with 8.9 percent support, followed by Adam Schwarze at 4.1 percent and Tom Weiler at 1.6 percent

The poll marks one of the clearest signs yet that Tafoya’s high-profile media career and statewide name recognition are giving her a major early advantage as Republicans look to compete for a Senate seat Democrats have controlled for years. Her entrance into the Senate race immediately elevated national attention around the contest, particularly as Republicans search for stronger statewide candidates capable of competing in traditionally blue-leaning states.

Tafoya spent decades as one of the most recognizable faces in sports broadcasting, most notably serving as a longtime sideline reporter for NBC’s “Sunday Night Football.”

While Tafoya currently dominates the Republican field, the race remains fluid given the large percentage of undecided voters and the possibility of additional candidates gaining traction over the summer campaign season.

In recent years, however, she has become increasingly active in conservative political commentary and public policy debates, frequently appearing on cable news programs and political panels

Still, no Republican candidate besides Tafoya currently appears close to consolidating broad support.

The Minnesota Senate seat became open after Smith announced she would not seek re-election in 2026, triggering competitive primaries in both parties ahead of the August 11 election

Additional Republican candidates who have either declared or filed paperwork include Alycia Gruenhagen, Christopher Brooks, Mark York, Ray Petersen, Schwarze, and Weiler. Despite Tafoya’s sizable primary lead, Republicans still face a difficult general election environment in Minnesota, a state Democrats have consistently carried in recent federal elections. Democrats are also preparing for a closely watched primary battle.

White, who became the GOP nominee against Sen

The leading Democratic contenders are U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan.

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 6–8, 2026

Minnesota’s Republican U.S. Senate primary begins with Michele Tafoya holding a commanding early lead, while more than one-quarter of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided.

📊 Minnesota GOP Senate Primary
🔴 Michele Tafoya:… pic.twitter.com/o07jKIYp4y

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) May 21, 2026

Amy Klobuchar in 2024, has struggled to break into double digits despite already having statewide campaign experience and strong backing from some populist conservative activists

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted in late April showed Flanagan leading Craig 44 percent to 33 percent, continuing a trend seen in earlier polling throughout the year.

Previous January surveys similarly showed Flanagan maintaining an advantage ranging from 8 to 13 points.

Major election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report, currently rate the seat as leaning Democratic due to Minnesota’s recent voting history and partisan makeup

Tafoya’s supporters argue her outsider profile, communication skills, and established public presence could help Republicans appeal to suburban and independent voters who have drifted away from the GOP in recent statewide elections.